In the present work, the determinants of port choice regarding container cargoes from specific hinterland regions are analyzed, based on an empirical study of Spain. Previous work has been extended by including novel explanatory variables for the market shares of ports in hinterland locations. Discrete choice theory is the methodological approach used here. More specifically, a nested logit model is proposed. As potential explanatory variables, the model includes maritime connectivity to specific overseas regions and intermodal connectivity of the port to specific hinterland locations. The empirical analysis is based on detailed Spanish customs data. The analysis shows that all variables hypothesized to influence the market share of a port in a specific hinterland region (i.e., road distance to the hinterland region, maritime distance, maritime connectivity of the port, and intermodal connectivity of the port) indeed influence significantly its market share, with the signs as expected. The findings add to the understanding of port competitiveness in specific regions with three conclusions: First, port hinterlands are relational, in the sense that they depend on the overseas origin or destination of the cargo; Second, the analysis suggests that ports that predominantly handle transhipment cargoes may have a “transhipment orientation,” which is an impediment for reaching hinterland markets; Third, intermodal connectivity is a determinant of the market share of a port in a certain hinterland region.
This article examines the historical development of the Greenland shark (Somniosus microcephalus) fishery in North Greenland from 1774-1898. The purpose of the article is to present a starting point, a so-called baseline, for further studies of the extent of the historical fishery. With data from mainly two archival series, the historical catch figures are presented, which has led to the year 1862 as a realistic baseline for the historical fishery of the Greenland shark in North Greenland.
International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-AsUsual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during presentday conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.
We present recent progress on the development of a new fully nonlinear potential flow (FNPF) model for estimation of nonlinear wave-body interactions based on a stabilized unstructured spectral element method (SEM). We introduce new proof-of-concepts for forced nonlinear wave-body interaction in two spatial dimensions to establish the methodology in the SEM setting utilizing dynamically adapted unstructured meshes. The numerical method behind the proposed methodology is described in some detail and numerical experiments on the forced motion of (i) surface piercing and (ii) submerged bodies are presented.
Due to increasing container traffic and mega-ships, many seaports face challenges of huge amounts of truck arrivals and congestion problem at terminal gates, which affect port efficiency and generate serious air pollution. To solve this congestion problem, we propose a solution of managing truck arrivals with time windows based on the truck-vessel service relationship, specifically trucks delivering containers for the same vessel share one common time window. Time windows can be optimized with different strategies. In this paper, we first propose a framework for installing this solution in a terminal system, and second develop an optimization model for scaling time windows with three alternative strategies: namely fixed ending-point strategy (FEP), variable end-point strategy and greedy algorithm strategy. Third, to compare the strategies in terms of effectiveness, numerical experiments are conducted based on real data. The result shows that (1) good planning coordination is essential for the proposed method; and (2) FEP is found to be a better strategy than the other two.
Carriers in liner shipping markets frequently make public announcements of general rate increase (GRI) intentions, based on which EU authorities have concerns as to whether this harms market competition. This paper aims to empirically investigate how well the GRI system works from an industrial competition perspective, which will indirectly indicate whether carriers are able to manipulate spot rates following GRI announcements. Taking the Far East–North Europe trade between 2009 and 2013 as an example, the paper first reveals the gradual increase of GRI frequency and size, which reflects carriers’ attempts to restore profitability against overcapacity. However, out of all the GRI events only 28.6% were observed to be successful. Since these GRI successes must be the results of either price collusion (if any) and/or normal rate change by carriers in response to fundamental market developments, the effective collusion, if it exists, is actually lower than 28.6%. Next, we identify eight factors influencing GRI successes. To further assess their impact, we applied an ordered logit regression analysis, which, based on four of the factors involved, yields good predictability for GRI success. The four factors, in sequence of explanation power, are the total capacity of GRI carriers, the idling fleet size, the spot rate level, and the average ship-loading factor. Clearly the latter three factors are market fundamentals, which are unlikely to be influenced by an individual carrier in the short term. In actual fact, the conclusion reached is that there is little evidence that carriers can manipulate and distort spot rates through GRIs.
The international Maritime Organization (IMO) Weather Criterion has proven to be the governing stability criteria regarding minimum metacentric height for e.g., small ferries and large passenger ships. The formulation of the Weather Criterion is based on some empirical relations derived many years ago for vessels not necessarily representative for current new buildings with large superstructures. Thus, it seems reasonable to investigate the possibility of capsizing in beam sea under the joint action of waves and wind using direct time domain simulations. This has already been done in several studies. Here, it is combined with the first order reliability method (FORM) to define possible combined critical wave and wind scenarios leading to capsize and corresponding probability of capsize. The FORM results for a fictitious vessel are compared with Monte Carlo simulations, and good agreement is found at a much lesser computational effort. Finally, the results for an existing small ferry will be discussed in the light of the current weather criterion.
Methanol, as one of the significant green fuel candidates for the combustion engines, can be produced from Power to X and biomass production. However, compression ignition (CI) of pure methanol in a combustion engine is impractical due to its low cetane rating. The strategy has gained little attention in the past, but is possible if the methanol is premixed with a fuel additive (ignition improver). In order to optimize and understand additivated methanol combustion, a phenomenological spray/packet combustion model is developed in this work. The model is used to calibrate an Arrhenius-type ignition delay equation for CI engine using additivated methanol, and the resulting calibrated ignition delay parameter is 2.14. The procedure involves to compare the modeled and experimental combustion rate profiles that are derived from a small marine CI engine by burning methanol with 3.5 % and up to 7.5 % kg/kg fuel additive. The present work finds that the phenomenological diesel combustion model methodology can be used with good accuracy, to simulate combustion rate profiles of additivated methanol in a CI engine. The model is, furthermore, able to indicate intermediate variables such as burning packet speeds, air mass, droplet mass, air/fuel equivalence ratio, and burning packet temperature for different packets of combustion.
In previous research, there have been more investigations on methanol blended with other fuels such as diesel, biodiesel, gasoline, etc., but fewer investigations on methanol with ignition additives as a mono-fuel. To better understand the methanol mono-fuel combustion characteristics and to further apply them, a combined experimental and simulation study of methanol in a Scania heavy-duty compression ignition (CI) engine was carried out in this work. The experiments consisted of four groups with variable injection timings, variable fraction of ignition additives, variable charge air temperatures, and variable overall excess air ratios/power sweeps. Heat release rate (HRR), cylinder pressure, ignition delay and indicated efficiency were analyzed for each case. The analysis showed that the combustion type was partially premixed combustion (PPC) in some cases and diesel-like combustion in the rest. By observing all cases, the shortest ignition delay was 14.1°, and the longest was 22.8°. The indicated efficiencies were in the range of 0.35 to 0.43. Simulations and validation analyses were performed for all cases by a multi-packets model. The physical and chemical ignition delays were predicted. The physical ignition delays were in the range of 4.25 to 8.10°, and the chemical ignition delays were in the range of 6.66 to 17.1°. The chemical ignition delay was always longer than the physical one. This indicates that chemical ignition delay has to be prioritized to improve the ignition performance of methanol fuel.