The shipping industry is associated with approximately three quarters of all world trade. In recent years, the sustainability of shipping has become a public concern, and various emissions control regulations to reduce pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships have been proposed and implemented globally. These regulations aim to drive the shipping industry in a low-carbon and low-pollutant direction by motivating it to switch to more efficient fuel types and reduce energy consumption. At the same time, the cyclical downturn of the world economy and high bunker prices make it necessary and urgent for the shipping industry to operate in a more costeffective way while still satisfying global trade demand. As bunker fuel bunker (e.g., heavy fuel oil (HFO), liquified natural gas (LNG)) consumption is the main source of emissions and bunker fuel costs account for a large proportion of operating costs, shipping companies are making unprecedented efforts to optimize ship energy efficiency. It is widely accepted that the key to improving the energy efficiency of ships is the development of accurate models to predict ship fuel consumption rates under different scenarios. In this study, the ship fuel consumption prediction models presented in the literature (including the academic literature and technical reports, which are a typical type of “grey literature”) are reviewed and compared, and models that optimize ship operations based on fuel consumption prediction results are also presented and discussed. Current research challenges and promising research questions on ship performance monitoring and operational optimization are identified.
The 76th session of the Marine Environment Committee (MEPC 76) of the International Maritime Organization adopted several mandatory measures in June 2021 to reduce carbon emissions from ships. One of the measures is the carbon intensity indicator (CII), which is the carbon emissions per unit transport work for each ship. Several options of CIIs are available and none of them is chosen to be applied yet. We prove that, at least in theory, requiring the attained annual CII of a ship to be less than a reference value, no matter which CII option is applied, may increase its carbon emissions. Therefore, more elaborate models, combined with real data, should be developed to analyze the effectiveness of each CII option and possibly to design a new CII.
The purpose of this paper is to assess the status and prospects of the decarbonization of maritime transport. Already more than two years have passed since the landmark decision of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in April 2018, which entailed ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships. The paper attempts to address the following three questions: (a) where do we stand with respect to GHG emissions from ships, (b) how is the Initial IMO Strategy progressing, and (c) what should be done to move ahead? To that effect, our methodology includes commenting on some of the key issues addressed by the recently released 4th IMO GHG study, assessing progress at the IMO since 2018, and finally identifying other issues that we consider relevant and important as regards maritime GHG emissions, such as for instance the role of the European Green Deal and how this may interact with the IMO process. Even though the approach of the paper is to a significant extent qualitative, some key quantitative and modelling aspects are considered as well. On the basis of our analysis, our main conjecture is that there is not yet light at the end of the tunnel with respect to decarbonizing maritime transport.
In an effort to reduce carbon emissions from international shipping, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) developed its initial strategy in April 2018 setting ambitious targets for the sector. According to the initial strategy, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping need to be reduced by at least 50% by 2050, and the CO2 emissions intensity by 40% by the year 2030, both compared to the 2008 levels. In order to achieve these goals, a combination of operational measures, investments in emissions abatement technology, and market-based measures will be necessary. The goals currently do not differentiate among different shipping sectors, and each sector faces different challenges. In this paper, we focus on short sea shipping (SSS), and on Ro-Pax services in particular that in general have not been examined thoroughly in the literature. We examine the emissions reduction potential of several measures, and we assess their efficacy compared with the targets set by the IMO initial strategy. The paper shows that the examined measures are not sufficient on their own to achieve the desired levels of reductions, and that a combination will be necessary, while technological solutions will need to be made more competitive through market based instruments.
Maritime transport carries around 80% of the world’s trade. It is key to the economic development of many countries, it is a source of income in many countries, and it is considered as a safe and environment friendly mode of transport. Given its undisputed importance, a question is what does the future hold for maritime transport. This chapter is an attempt to answer this question by mainly addressing the drive to decarbonize shipping, along with related challenges as regards alternative low carbon or zero carbon marine fuels. The important role of maritime policy making as a main driver for change is also discussed. Specifically, if maritime transport is to drastically change so as to meet carbon emissions reduction targets, the chapter argues, among other things, that a substantial bunker levy would be the best (or maybe the only) way to induce technological changes in the long run and logistical measures (such as slow steaming) in the short run. In the
long run this would lead to changes in the global fleet towards vessels and technologies that are more energy efficient, more economically viable and less dependent on fossil fuels than those today. In that sense, it would have the potential to drastically alter the face of maritime transport in the future. However, as things stand, and mainly for political reasons, the chapter also argues that the adoption of such a measure is considered as rather unlikely.
International shipping is at a crossroads as regards decarbonization. The Paris climate change agreement in 2015 (COP21) was hailed by many as a most significant achievement. Others were less enthusiastic, and more recently American President Trump decided to take the U.S. out of the agreement. Four years earlier, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) had adopted the most sweeping piece of regulation pertaining to maritime greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, in the name of the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). In addition, one year after COP21, the IMO adopted a mandatory data collection system for fuel consumption of ships and agreed on an initial strategy and roadmap on the reduction of GHG emissions from ships. This paper takes a critical look at the above and other recent developments and focuses on the challenges faced by the industry if a path to significant CO2 reductions is to be successful. Difficulties and opportunities are identified, and the paper conjectures that the main obstacles are neither technical nor economic, but political.
This report presents the results of Activity 3.2-2 of the Scandria®2Act project. It investigates the sensitivity of the Ro-Ro services along the Scandria® corridor to fuel cost fluctuations, anticipates the adverse effects of a possible fuel price hike and discusses potential mitigating measures.
Among the 77 Ro-Ro services that include at least one direct connection between two Baltic ports, the Finland-Germany connections were selected for further examination mainly because this is where the ScanMed and NSB core network corridors meet providing two major alternatives, each of which offer at least two options. In terms of abatement options available to the Ro-Ro operators, the study considers only the switching from Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) to the compliant but more expensive Marine Gas Oil (MGO), which happens to be the only feasible solution in the short-run that does not require a substantial capital investment.
The study deployed two different approaches in meeting its objectives. The first one looked at the problem from the macro-level perspective and the analysis was based on aggregate annual statistics of the ports serving the Finland-Germany connections. A multiple regression model estimated the sensitivity of cargo flows to fuel price fluctuations. Although most of the cargo volumes exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to fuel price, in all cases this is below 1.0, indicating a rather inelastic
behaviour. The results show that an increase in fuel price penalises the volume of lorries on the longdistance Helsinki-Germany route in favour of the shorter Helsinki-Tallinn and Hanko-Germany options. The trailer (unaccompanied) traffic exhibit a different behaviour that might relate to the pricing policies of the Ro-Ro operators in relation to this market segment.
Ports are crucial hubs in the functioning of the global economy, and maritime transport is a major emitter of air pollutants. Ports have considerable potential for promoting environmental upgrading in maritime transport and along global value chains more generally, but so far have been only partially successful in doing so. We examine results, limitations and future potential of voluntary initiatives that have been carried out by selected European and North American port authorities, which are considered frontrunners in environmental management. Drawing from the insights of global value chain analysis and organizational theory, we find that low ‘tool implementation complexity’ and high ‘issue visibility’ concerning emissions are key facilitators of environmental upgrading. We suggest that ports can intervene in two main ways to improve the environmental performance of maritime transport beyond their organizational and physical boundaries: by lowering tool implementation complexity through stronger collaboration within global value chains; and by enhancing emission visibility through alliances with cargo-owners and regulators.
Decisions regarding investments in capacity expansion/renewal require taking into account both the operating fitness and the financial performance of the investment. While several operating requirements have been considered in the operations research literature, the corresponding financial aspects have not received as much attention. We introduce a model for the renewal of shipping capacity which maximizes the Average Internal Rate of Return (AIRR). Maximizing the AIRR sets stricter return requirements on money expenditures than classic profit maximization models and may describe more closely shipping investors׳ preferences. The resulting nonlinear model is linearized to ease computation. Based on data from a shipping company we compare a profit maximization model with an AIRR maximization model. Results show that while maximizing profits results in aggressive expansions of the fleet, maximizing the return provides more balanced renewal strategies which may be preferable to most shipping investors.