As Arctic sea ice recedes due to global warming, ship traffic is increasing, posing global climate risks, particularly from black carbon emissions. Emitted by ships burning heavy fuel oil, black carbon accelerates ice melt and contributes to climate change. Despite this urgency regulatory progress on the topic has been slow. The International Maritime Organization has debated Arctic black carbon emissions for over a decade with little advancement. Notably, regulatory efforts on the topic so far have been driven mainly by non-state actors rather than states. However, their regulatory influence is hindered by a critical barrier: a lack of transparency. This article analyses the crucial role of transparency in international law-making, specifically for non-state actors, using Arctic black carbon regulation as a case study. Drawing on semi-structured interviews, the article identifies transparency challenges and suggests recommendations to overcome them, thereby strengthening the role of non-state actors within the regulation.
The idea for this project originated within the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group, where a concern was raised about the disposal of tailings from onshore mining operations onto the seafloor. This led to a broader reflection on the impacts of mining operations on the marine environment. Many Arctic governments support the development of a mineral extraction industry, provided it operates in an environmentally responsible manner and considers socio-economic impacts to local communities. However, the environmental impact of existing and future mining operations is often debated. This report summarizes the results of the multi-year Existing Waste Management Practices and Pollution Control for Marine and Coastal Mining project, developed under the auspices of the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group.
Purpose This study aims to explore how operational resilience can be achieved within supply ecosystems in the delicate yet harsh natural environments of the Arctic. Design/methodology/approach An in-depth, multiple qualitative case study of offshore supply operations in Arctic oil and gas field projects is conducted. Data from semi-structured interviews, personal observations and archival materials are analyzed through institutional work and logics approaches. Findings The findings suggest that achieving social-ecological resilience depends on the interaction between social and natural (irreversible) systems, which are shaped and influenced by various institutional dynamics. Different resilience solutions were detected. Research limitations/implications This study develops a comprehensive understanding of how social-ecological resilience emerges in supply ecosystems through institutional dynamics. The study's empirical basis is limited to offshore oil and gas projects in the Arctic. However, due to anticipated future growth of Arctic economic activities, other types of supply ecosystems may benefit from the study's results.Originality/value This research contributes with empirical knowledge about how social-ecological resilience is created through institutional interaction within supply ecosystems to prevent disruptions of both social and ecological ecosystems under the harsh natural conditions of the Arctic.
International initiatives have successfully brought down the emissions, and hence also the related negative impacts on environment and human health, from shipping in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). However, the question remains as to whether increased shipping in the future will counteract these emission reductions. The overall goal of this study is to provide an up-to-date view on future ship emissions and provide a holistic view on atmospheric pollutants and their contribution to air quality in the Nordic (and Arctic) area. The first step has been to set up new and detailed scenarios for the potential developments in global shipping emissions, including different regulations and new routes in the Arctic. The scenarios include a Baseline scenario and two additional SOx Emission Control Areas (SE-CAs) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) ban scenarios. All three scenarios are calculated in two variants involving Business-AsUsual (BAU) and High-Growth (HiG) traffic scenarios. Additionally a Polar route scenario is included with new ship traffic routes in the future Arctic with less sea ice. This has been combined with existing Current Legislation scenarios for the land-based emissions (ECLIPSE V5a) and used as input for two Nordic chemistry transport models (DEHM and MATCH). Thereby, the current (2015) and future (2030, 2050) air pollution levels and the contribution from shipping have been simulated for the Nordic and Arctic areas. Population exposure and the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution in the Nordic area have thereafter been assessed by using the health assessment model EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution). It is estimated that within the Nordic region approximately 9900 persons died prematurely due to air pollution in 2015 (corresponding to approximately 37 premature deaths for every 100 000 inhabitants). When including the projected development in both shipping and land-based emissions, this number is estimated to decrease to approximately 7900 in 2050. Shipping alone is associated with about 850 premature deaths during presentday conditions (as a mean over the two models), decreasing to approximately 600 cases in the 2050 BAU scenario. Introducing a HFO ban has the potential to lower the number of cases associated with emissions from shipping to approximately 550 in 2050, while the SECA scenario has a smaller impact. The "worst-case" scenario of no additional regulation of shipping emissions combined with a high growth in the shipping traffic will, on the other hand, lead to a small increase in the relative impact of shipping, and the number of premature deaths related to shipping is in that scenario projected to be around 900 in 2050. This scenario also leads to increased deposition of nitrogen and black carbon in the Arctic, with potential impacts on environment and climate.
This report forms part of the ambitious CBS Maritime research initiative entitled “Competitive Challenges and Strategic Development Potential in Global Maritime Industries” which was launched with the generous support of the Danish Maritime Fund. The competitiveness initiative targets specific maritime industries (including shipping, offshore energy, ports, and maritime service and equipment suppliers) as well as addresses topics that cut across maritime industries (regulation and competitiveness). The topics and narrower research questions addressed in the initiative were developed in close dialogue between CBS Maritime and the maritime industries in Denmark. CBS Maritime is a Business in Society (BiS) Platform at Copenhagen Business School committed to the big question of how to achieve economic and social progress in the maritime industries. CBS Maritime aims to strengthen a maritime focus at CBS and create the foundation for CBS as a stronger partner for the maritime industries, as well as for other universities and business school with a devotion to maritime economics research. The competitiveness initiative comprises a number of PhD projects and five short term mapping projects, the latter aiming at developing key concepts and building up a basic industry knowledge base for further development of CBS Maritime research and teaching. This report attempts to map the opportunities and challenges for the maritime industry in an increasingly accessible Arctic Ocean
According to the narratives transmitted through media and political discourse, climate change reduces the ice coverage in the Arctic and enhances shipping and other forms of maritime activities. Especially, expectations of an increasing level of transit shipping between Asian, especially Chinese, ports and ports in Europe and North America is dominant. Evidence, however, tells that the numbers of transit shipping through the Arctic Ocean are very limited, and dominated by European shipping companies. For Greenland, political expectations have also been high, since Greenland has been seen as "strategically" situated in relation to new shipping routes in the Arctic, But, again, the actual development has been moderate and not related to international transits but conditions in Greenland itself.
Melting Arctic sea ice, shore ice, and permafrost are changing costs and benefits to transport routes between Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and more generally, for maritime economic activity in the Arctic. We investigate the potential for development of Arctic ports from a logistics (demand) and an infrastructural (supply) point of view that directly incorporates local concerns. This approach broadens the scope of the discussion from existing analyses that focus primarily on the ways in which global forces, exerted through resource extraction or trans-polar shipping, impact the Arctic.
We approach questions of Arctic marine resource economic development from the framework of environmental and resource economics. Shipping, fishing, oil and gas exploration and tourism are discussed as evolving industries for the Arctic. These industries are associated with a number of potential market failures which sustainable Arctic economic development must address. The varying scales of economic activity in the region range from subsistence hunting and fishing to actions by wealthy multinational firms. The ways in which interactions of such varied scales proceed will determine the economic futures of Arctic communities and the natural resources and ecosystems upon which they are based.
The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. Partly as a result, the transport pattern has changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may increase the risk of accidents. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability. In this paper we look into the risks of accidents in the Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of response in emergency situations. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic marine accidents. Therefore, in this study a mostly qualitative analysis and expert judgement is the basis for the risk assessments. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the region are discussed. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location,
The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence on the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of nature. In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed.