Knowledge

Keyword: risk management

paper

Using biophysical modelling and marine connectivity to assess the risk of natural dispersal of non-indigenous species to comply with the Ballast Water Management Convention

Flemming Thorbjørn Hansen*, Ane Pastor, Asbjørn Christensen, Frank Stuer-Lauridsen

The introduction of Marine Non-Indigenous Species (NIS) poses a significant threat to global marine biodiversity and ecosystems. To mitigate this risk, the Ballast Water Management Convention (BWMC) was adopted by the UN International Maritime Organisation (IMO), setting strict criteria for discharges of ballast water. However, the BWMC permits exemptions for shipping routes operating within a geographical area, known as a Same-Risk-Area (SRA). An SRA can be established in areas where a risk assessment (RA) can conclude that the spread of NIS via ballast water is low relative to the predicted natural dispersal. Despite the BWMC's requirement for RAs to be based on modelling of the natural dispersal of NIS, no standard procedures have been established. This paper presents a methodology utilizing biophysical modelling and marine connectivity analyses to conduct SRA RA and delineation. Focusing on the Kattegat and Øresund connecting the North Sea and Baltic Sea, we examine two SRA candidates spanning Danish and Swedish waters. We provide an example on how to conduct an RA including an RA summary, and addressing findings, challenges, and prospects. Our study aims to advance the development and adoption of consistent, transparent, and scientifically robust SRA assessments for effective ballast water management.

Biological Invasions / 2024
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Retrofitting Technologies for Eco-Friendly Ship Structures: A Risk Analysis Perspective

Athanasios Kolios*

This paper presents a detailed risk assessment framework tailored for retrofitting ship structures towards eco-friendliness. Addressing a critical gap in current research, it proposes a comprehensive strategy integrating technical, environmental, economic, and regulatory considerations. The framework, grounded in the Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach, adeptly combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies to assess the feasibility and impact of retrofitting technologies. A case study on ferry electrification, highlighting options like fully electric and hybrid propulsion systems, illustrates the application of this framework. Fully Electric Systems pose challenges such as ensuring ample battery capacity and establishing the requisite charging infrastructure, despite offering significant emission reductions. Hybrid systems present a flexible alternative, balancing electric operation with conventional fuel to reduce emissions without compromising range. This study emphasizes a holistic risk mitigation strategy, aligning advanced technological applications with environmental and economic viability within a strict regulatory context. It advocates for specific risk control measures that refine retrofitting practices, guiding the maritime industry towards a more sustainable future within an evolving technological and regulatory landscape.

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering / 2024
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What is known about cardiovascular diseases among seafarers: A systematic scoping review and quality assessment

Solveig Boeggild Dohrmann*, Regina Fromsejer Heiberg, Line Wang Krenzen, Sofie Ronja Petersen, Jordan Thomas Adams, Jane Skov

Background: Seafarers are at an increased risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), potentially due to a stressful working environment and behavioral risk factors. To develop better prevention strategies, it is important to elucidate the extent of this risk. Therefore, we conducted a systematic literature review on CVD in seafarers. Method: We conducted systematic searches in five databases. All studies investigating CVDs among occupational seafarers, published in articles or conference papers, were eligible for inclusion. The identified records were screened and reviewed by two independent researchers, who also evaluated the methodological quality of the included studies. Results: Three thousand nine hundred and seventeen records qualified for screening, and 55 were eligible for inclusion. Most of the studies were observational, including cohort, frequency, incidence or prevalence studies, and review of case records. Around half were assessed at risk of biased findings. Participants in the studies were primarily from North America or the European continent and work onboard transportation vessels. Many studies investigated CVDs as a cause of death, focusing on conditions such as CVD, ischemic heart disease, and myocardial infarction. Frequency of CVD conditions varied but indicate that seafarers face a greater risk compared to the reference populations or control groups. Environmental factors were mainly investigated as risk factors. Conclusion: Our results indicate a higher risk of CVDs among seafarers compared to reference or control groups. However, due to the variable quality of the evidence, well-designed studies are needed to establish the causes of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in seafarers and to investigate behavioral aspects of cardiovascular risk.

American Journal of Industrial Medicine / 2024
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Maritime security and the wind: Exploring threats and risks to renewable energy infrastructures offshore

Christian Bueger, Timothy Edmunds

Offshore wind energy production has seen a significant expansion in the past decade and has become one of the most important maritime activities. However, the implications of offshore wind farm expansion for maritime security have, so far, received sparse attention in the literature. In this article we conduct one of the first thorough analyses of the security of offshore wind farms and related installations, such as underwater electricity cables, energy islands, and hydrogen plants.

Ocean Yearbook / 2024
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Modelling Ripple Effect Propagation and Global Supply Chain Workforce Productivity Impacts in Pandemic Disruptions

Xavier Brusset, Morteza Davari, Aseem Kinra, Davide La Torre

An increasing number of disruptions in ports, plants and warehouses have generated ripple effects over supply networks impacting economic activity. We demonstrate how the spread of the pandemic geographically expands the ripple effect by reducing the workers' participation in production, so undermining the ability of firms and, as a result, the entire cross-border sup- ply chain network to satisfy customers' demands. Our model of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the propagation of Covid-19 infection for supply networks contributes toward ripple effect visualisation and quantification by combining the flow of goods and materials through a typical global supply chain with an epidemiological model. The model enables prospective analyses to be performed in what-if scenarios to simulate the impact on the workforce in each node. The outcome should be helpful tools for managers and scholars. Results from this research will help mitigate the impact and spread of a pandemic in a particular region and the ability of a supply network to overcome the ripple effect. A stylised case study of a cross-border supply chain illustrates the ripple effect by showing how waves with crests at varying dates impact the ability to serve demand showing how a supply chain manager can obtain a forward-looking picture.

International Journal of Production Research / 2023
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A comparative risk analysis on CyberShip system with STPA-Sec, STRIDE and CORAS

Rishikesh Sahay, D. A. Sepulveda Estay, Weizhi Meng*, Christian D. Jensen, Michael Bruhn Barfod

The widespread use of software-intensive cyber systems in critical infrastructures such as ships (CyberShips) has brought huge benefits, yet it has also opened new avenues for cyber attacks to potentially disrupt operations. Cyber risk assessment plays a vital role in identifying cyber threats and vulnerabilities that can be exploited to compromise cyber systems. Understanding the nature of cyber threats and their potential risks and impact is essential to improve the security and resilience of cyber systems, and to build systems that are secure by design and better prepared to detect and mitigate cyber attacks. A number of methodologies have been proposed to carry out these analyses. This paper evaluates and compares the application of three risk assessment methodologies: system theoretic process analysis (STPA-Sec), STRIDE and CORAS for identifying threats and vulnerabilities in a CyberShip system. We specifically selected these three methodologies because they identify threats not only at the component level, but also threats or hazards caused due to the interaction between components, resulting in sets of threats identified with each methodology and relevant differences. Moreover, STPA-Sec, which is a variant of the STPA, is widely used for safety and security analysis of cyber physical systems (CPS); CORAS offers a framework to perform cyber risk assessment in a top-down approach that aligns with STPA-Sec; and STRIDE (Spoofing, Tampering, Repudiation,Information disclosure, Denial of Service, Elevation of Privilege) considers threat at the component level as well as during the interaction that is similar to STPA-Sec. As a result of this analysis, this paper highlights the pros and cons of these methodologies, illustrates areas of special applicability, and suggests that their complementary use as threats identified through STRIDE can be used as an input to CORAS and STPA-Sec to make these methods more structured.

Computers and Security / 2023
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Critical Review of the OSPAR Risk Based Approach for Offshore Produced Water Discharges

A. F. Nielsen, A. Baun, S. I. Andersen, L. M. Skjolding*

The management of produced water (PW) discharges from offshore oil and gas installations in the North Atlantic is under the auspices of OSPAR (Oslo/Paris convention for Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic). In 2010, OSPAR introduced the Risk Based Approach (RBA) for PW management. The RBA includes a hazard assessment estimating PW ecotoxicity using two approaches: Whole Effluent Testing (WET) and Substance Based (SB). Set against the framework of the WET and SB approach, this study conducted a literature review on the magnitude and cause of PW ecotoxicity, respectively, and on the challenges of estimating these. A large variability in the reported magnitude of PW WET was found, with (E/L)C50-values ranging from 100% and a median of 11% (n=301). Metals, hydrocarbons, and production chemicals were identified as causing ecotoxicity across literature. However, this review reveals how knowledge gaps on PW composition and high sample- and species-dependency of PW ecotoxicity makes clear identification and generalization difficult. It also highlights how limitations regarding availability and reliability of ecotoxicity data result in large uncertainties in the subsequent risk estimates, which is not adequately reflected in the RBA output (e.g. environmental impact factors). Thus, it is recommended to increase the focus on improving ecotoxicity data quality before further use in the RBA, and that WET should play a more pronounced role in the testing strategy. To increase the reliability of the SB approach, more attention should be given to the actual composition of PW. Bioassay-directed chemical analysis, combining outcomes of WET and SB in toxicity identification evaluations, may hold the key to identifying drivers of ecotoxicity in PW. Finally, an uncertainty appraisal must be an integrated part of all reporting of risk estimates in the RBA, to avoid mitigation actions based on uncertainties rather than reliable ecotoxicity estimations.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management / 2023
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Maritime Piracy and the Ambiguous Art of Existential Arbitrage

Adrienne Mannov

This paper explores the ways in which maritime labor, maritime risk, and seafarers’ survival are embedded in the financial logics and practices of the global shipping industry. By employing the notion of “existential arbitrage,” the ethnography moves through the pursuit of global profit to the value of labor as a commodity, human and financial risk, and ultimately the value of human lives, all of which are arbitraged. Arbitrage is a profit strategy that is based on a belief in the equalizing power of the market yet is predicated on and creates difference among commodities in order to create opportunities to generate profit. Existential arbitrage brings anthropological studies of security and conflict and trade and finance together. By taking the interdependence of these subfields seriously and showing how the relationship between them manifests itself in practice, the notion of existential arbitrage uncovers a brutal financial trading strategy that requires and forces the oscillation between notions of valuable life and the valuation of labor commodities in a competitive global market.

Current Anthropolgy / 2023
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Scarce resources or damaged goods? On the legitimacy of laid-off workers following MNC failure

Agnieszka Urszula Nowinska, Kristina Andersen, Mark Lorenzen

We contribute to theorizing global human resource strategy by analyzing the mobility of workers laid off due to the failure of a MNC employer. The job opportunities of laid-off workers are affected by their industry legitimacy. Focusing on scarce specialized workers, we propose that prospective MNC employers share an interest in retaining such workers' legitimacy. However, in the light of organizational failure, they may suffer from cross-border legitimacy loss conditioned by their former employer's MNC structure—specifically, their former organizational units or geographical locations. We present an illustrative case study of traders laid off by a spectacular bankruptcy in the global bunker industry. This inspires a discussion of how MNC top management can manipulate worker legitimacy following an organizational failure. Managerial Summary: Strategic hiring of globally mobile scarce specialized workers is central to global human resource strategy. We analyze what drives the legitimacy and mobility of such workers after being laid off by a bankruptcy of their former employer. We demonstrate that laid off workers experience comparatively high legitimacy loss when they were previously assigned to an MNC organizational unit or geographical location where other workers were suspected of being responsible for failure. This weakens their bargaining position vis-a-vis a prospective employer. We present an illustrative case study of traders laid off by a spectacular bankruptcy in the global bunker oil industry.

Global Strategy Journal / 2023
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Cyber-resilience for marine navigation by information fusion and change detection

Dimitrios Dagdilelis*, Mogens Blanke, Rasmus Hjorth Andersen, Roberto Galeazzi

Cyber-resilience is an increasing concern for autonomous navigation of marine vessels. This paper scrutinizes cyber-resilience properties of marine navigation through a prism with three edges: multiple sensor information fusion, diagnosis of not-normal behaviours, and change detection. It proposes a two-stage estimator for diagnosis and mitigation of sensor signals used for coastal navigation. Developing a Likelihood Field approach, the first stage extracts shoreline features from radar and matches them to the electronic navigation chart. The second stage associates buoy and beacon features from the radar with chart information. Using real data logged at sea tests combined with simulated spoofing, the paper verifies the ability to timely diagnose and isolate an attempt to compromise position measurements. A new approach is suggested for high level processing of received data to evaluate their consistency, which is agnostic to the underlying technology of the individual sensory input. A combined generalized likelihood ratio test using both parametric Gaussian modelling and Kernel Density Estimation is suggested and compared with a detector using only either of two. The paper shows how the detection of deviations from nominal behaviour is possible when the navigation sensor is under attack or defects occur.

Ocean Engineering / 2022
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