The maritime industry is a crucial hard-to-abate sector that is expected to depend on high-energy density renewable liquid fuels in the future. Traditionally, decarbonization pathways have been assessed assuming exogenous cost trajectories for renewable liquid fuels based on an exogenous learning curve. While past studies have looked at the impact of endogenizing learning curves for a specific technology utilizing linear approximation, a fully endogenous direct non-linear implementation of learning curves in a detailed sectoral model (maritime industry) that explores dynamics concerning sensitive parameters does not yet exist. Here, we apply an open-source optimization model for decarbonizing the maritime industry and further develop the model by encompassing a nonconvex mixed-integer quadratically constrained programming approach to analyze the impact of endogenized learning curves for renewable fuel costs following an experience curve approach. We find that global greenhouse gas emissions are significantly lower (up to 25% over a 30 year horizon) when utilizing endogenously modeled prices for renewable fuels compared to commonly used exogenous learning frameworks. Furthermore, we find that conventional modeling approaches overestimate the cost of climate mitigation, which can have significant policy implication related to carbon pricing and fuel efficiency requirements. In a broader context, this emphasizes the potential opportunities that can be achieved if policymakers and companies accelerate investments that drive down the costs of renewable technologies efficiently and thus trigger endogenous experience-based learning in real life.
Global climate change, which is largely attributed to human activity, is one of the foremost challenges of the 21st century. In recent times, there have been notable alterations in the Earth's climate, resulting in profound impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. These alterations are caused by greenhouse gas, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Greenhouse gas emissions are caused by practices such as deforestation, industrial operations, and the combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and manufacturing facilities. The maritime and aviation industry is currently responsible for approximately 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Due to logistical and economic constraints, these industries are heavily reliant on liquid fuels, making direct electrification options unavailable for large parts of these sectors. As a result, these sectors are considered ‘hard to abate’. Understanding the future climate mitigation challenges associated with the maritime and aviation sectors is crucial in shaping effective policy measures, avoiding stranded assets, and preserving the chance to meet Paris Agreement-compatible emission reduction pathways.
This thesis identifies three main challenges and proposes modelling approaches to address them when modelling decarbonization pathways for the aviation and maritime sectors. From these challenges, research gaps have been identified that this PhD thesis aims to fill. Three models have been developed for the thesis: a maritime optimization model, a maritime demand model, and an aviation demand model. The modelling landscape and methodology vary across models, ranging from econometrics and data science to mathematical optimization.
To overcome the challenges and fill in the research gaps, three corresponding modelling approaches have been successfully applied:
1. Developing a holistic decarbonization modelling landscape. This includes life-cycle representations of technology costs and emissions, the upscaling of bottleneck technologies, the availability of sustainable biomass, and consideration of competing demand from other industries, as well as representations of policy levers such as carbon pricing or improvements to fuel efficiency.
2. Developing demand models that interpret the underlying scenario narrative consistently (SSP framework).
3. Improving the representation of technological learning for low-carbon technologies in energy system models.
The findings acquired by applying these three modelling approaches are valuable for energy modellers, climate scientists, and policymakers and offer unique insights into the inherent system dynamics associated with decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. Utilizing this modelling landscape reveals that current decarbonization efforts for hard-to-abate sectors are insufficient.
The 76th session of the Marine Environment Committee (MEPC 76) of the International Maritime Organization adopted several mandatory measures in June 2021 to reduce carbon emissions from ships. One of the measures is the carbon intensity indicator (CII), which is the carbon emissions per unit transport work for each ship. Several options of CIIs are available and none of them is chosen to be applied yet. We prove that, at least in theory, requiring the attained annual CII of a ship to be less than a reference value, no matter which CII option is applied, may increase its carbon emissions. Therefore, more elaborate models, combined with real data, should be developed to analyze the effectiveness of each CII option and possibly to design a new CII.
In an effort to reduce carbon emissions from international shipping, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) developed its initial strategy in April 2018 setting ambitious targets for the sector. According to the initial strategy, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping need to be reduced by at least 50% by 2050, and the CO2 emissions intensity by 40% by the year 2030, both compared to the 2008 levels. In order to achieve these goals, a combination of operational measures, investments in emissions abatement technology, and market-based measures will be necessary. The goals currently do not differentiate among different shipping sectors, and each sector faces different challenges. In this paper, we focus on short sea shipping (SSS), and on Ro-Pax services in particular that in general have not been examined thoroughly in the literature. We examine the emissions reduction potential of several measures, and we assess their efficacy compared with the targets set by the IMO initial strategy. The paper shows that the examined measures are not sufficient on their own to achieve the desired levels of reductions, and that a combination will be necessary, while technological solutions will need to be made more competitive through market based instruments.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) entails investments to improve overland (rail) transport between Europe and China. This paper introduces a microscopic Multi-Commodity Flow Service Selection Problem for freight transport under the BRI and provides a decision tool for shippers to make door-to-door service plans. The minimizing objective function considers transportation costs, in-transit inventory costs, and carbon emissions. A series of sampled data of each provincial region of China are collected from Chinese multimodal transport operators. Results show that inland regions are strongly attracted to the rail mode for shipments to Europe. However, the “last mile” (including “first mile”) transport from the shipper to the long-haul transport terminal strongly influences this choice, and carbon emissions are strongly influenced by the available last mile transport links. Under the dual impact of in-transit inventory and carbon emission costs, regions that prefer rail to maritime are much further east than suggested by previous literature.