Knowledge

Keyword: risk management

paper

Numerical analysis of methane slip source distribution in a four-stroke dual-fuel marine engine

Jensen, Michael Vincent; Cordtz, Rasmus Faurskov; Schramm, Jesper

We present the results of a numerical model which has been developed for estimating the contribution to the methane slip from different sources in a four-stroke dual-fuel marine engine running on natural gas. The model is a thermodynamic three-zone zero-dimensional full engine cycle model and considers methane slip contributions from short-circuiting, crevices and wall quenching. The model is applied to analyze the methane slip from a four-stroke dual-fuel medium speed marine engine using natural gas as primary fuel. At low loads, wall quenching is found to be the dominant contribution to the methane slip. At full load, the wall quenching contribution is comparable to the level of the short-circuiting and crevice contributions which only vary relatively little with load. At 75% load, the contribution from short-circuiting is highest. In addition, we found that in-cylinder post-oxidation of unburned fuel remaining after the main combustion is negligible.

Journal of Marine Science and Technology, volume 26 / 2020
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paper

Analysis of structural crashworthiness of double-hull ships in collision and grounding

Liu, Bin; Villavicencio, Richard; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Guedes Soares, C.

A conceptual design framework for collision and grounding analysis is proposed to evaluate the crashworthiness of double-hull structures. This work attempts to simplify the input parameters needed for the analysis, which can be considered as a step towards a design-oriented procedure against collision and grounding. Four typical collision and grounding scenarios are considered: (1) side structure struck by a bulbous bow, (2) side structure struck by a straight bow, (3) bottom raking, (4) bottom stranding. The analyses of these scenarios are based on statistical data of striking ship dimensions, velocities, collision angles and locations, as well as seabed shapes and sizes, grounding depth and location. The evaluation of the damage extent considers the 50- and 90-percentile values from the statistics of collision and grounding accidents. The external dynamics and internal mechanics are combined to analyse systematically the ship structural damage and energy absorption under accidental loadings.

Marine Structures, Volume 76 / 2020
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paper

Design of bridges against ship collisions

Preben Terndrup Pedersen*, Jun Chen, Ling Zhu

The paper outlines a rational design procedure for bridge piers and pylons against ship collision impacts. Firstly, a set of risk acceptance criteria are proposed. This is followed by a mathematically based procedure for calculation of the probability of critical ship meeting situations near the bridge, and the probability of ship collision accidents caused by human errors as well as technical errors. This first part of the paper leads to identification of the largest striking ship, “design vessels”, a given bridge pier must withstand without structural failure in order for the bridge connection to fulfil the risk acceptance criteria. The final part of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the needed impact capacity for the bridge pylons and piers exposed to ship bow impact loads from these “design vessels”. For a number of different ship types and different tonnage merchant vessels, load – displacement relations for ship bow collisions against rigid walls are derived. Based on these comprehensive numerical results, a new empirical relation is derived which is suited for design against bow collisions. This expression for maximum bow collision forces is compared with a previously published expression for ice-strengthened ships and with existing standards for assessment of bow crushing forces. It is shown that there is need for an update of these existing standards. For design of piers and pylons against local impact pressure loads, a pressure - area relation for bulbous bow impacts is derived.

Marine Structures / 2020
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paper

Risk control in maritime shipping investments

Skålnes, Jørgen; Fagerholt, Kjetil; Pantuso, Giovanni; Wang, Xin

In this paper we extend the state-of-the-art stochastic programming models for the Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem (MFRP) to explicitly limit the risk of insolvency due to negative cash flows when making maritime shipping investments. This is achieved by modeling the payment of ships in a number of periodical installments rather than in a lump sum paid upfront, representing more closely the actual cash flows for a shipping company. Based on this, we propose two alternative risk control measures, where the first imposes that the cash flow in each time period is always higher than a desired threshold, while the second limits the Conditional Value-at-Risk. We test the two models on realistic test instances based on data from a shipping company. The computational study demonstrates how the two models can be used to assess the trade-offs between risk of insolvency and expected profits in the MFRP.

Omega, Volume 96 / 2020
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paper

Ship collision damage assessment and validation with experiments and numerical simulations

Shengming Zhang, R. Villavicencio, L. Zhu*, P. Terndrup Pedersen

Closed-form expressions to estimate the energy absorption and damage extent for severe ship collision damages were initially developed in 1999 [1, 2], and further validated with experimental data in 2016 [3]. To gain further confidence for applications within design using the proposed analytical procedure, it is evident that more detailed and comprehensive comparisons and validations with experiments and numerical simulations are necessary. The purpose of the present paper is to use the analytical approach and finite element analyses to study in depth model-scale and full-scale collision tests so that to further quantify key calculation parameters and to verify the capability and accuracy of the proposed analytical method. In total 18 experimental tests and one full-scale collision accident are evaluated. The 18 experimental energy absorption-penetration and collision force-penetration curves, and the associated finite element simulations, are compared with results obtained from the analytical calculations. It can be concluded that the analytical method gives consistently good agreement with all experiments analysed here. Finally, an application of the analytical method is demonstrated by an example where speed restrictions are determined in a port to avoid LNG cargo leakage in an event of an LNG carrier being struck by another ship.

Marine Structures / 2019
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book

Probability and Mechanics of Ship Collision and Grounding

Zhang, Shengming; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Villavicencio, Richard

Ship collision and grounding events constitute a major hazard for ship operations, and ship collision risk analyses have to be carried out for installations such as offshore structures for extraction of hydrocarbons, offshore wind farms, and bridges spanning waterways. This book provides assessment procedures for ship collision and grounding analysis and includes probabilistic methods for collision and grounding risk assessment, estimation of the energy released during collisions, and prediction of the extent of damage on the involved structures.
The main feature of the book is that it encapsulates reliable and fast analysis methods for collision and grounding assessment and the methods have been extensively validated with experimental and numerical results. In addition, all the described analysis methods include realistic calculation examples so as to provide confidence in their use to eventually conduct the required assessment according to the rules and design codes. The book is intended as a handbook for professionals and researchers in the industry dealing with design and analysis of ships and offshore structures. The book can also be used as a text book for postgraduate courses orientated towards the design and analysis of ship and offshore structures.

Elsevier / 2019
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book

Probability and Mechanics of Ship Collision and Grounding

Shengming Zhang, Preben Terndrup Pedersen, Richard Villavicencio

Ship collision and grounding events constitute a major hazard for ship operations, and ship collision risk analyses have to be carried out for installations such as offshore structures for extraction of hydrocarbons, offshore wind farms, and bridges spanning waterways. This book provides assessment procedures for ship collision and grounding analysis and includes probabilistic methods for collision and grounding risk assessment, estimation of the energy released during collisions, and prediction of the extent of damage on the involved structures.
The main feature of the book is that it encapsulates reliable and fast analysis methods for collision and grounding assessment and the methods have been extensively validated with experimental and numerical results. In addition, all the described analysis methods include realistic calculation examples so as to provide confidence in their use to eventually conduct the required assessment according to the rules and design codes. The book is intended as a handbook for professionals and researchers in the industry dealing with design and analysis of ships and offshore structures. The book can also be used as a text book for postgraduate courses orientated towards the design and analysis of ship and offshore structures.

Elsevier / 2019
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paper

Parallel Automaton Representation of Marine Crafts’ COLREGs-based Manoeuvering Behaviours

Papageorgiou, Dimitrios; Blanke, Mogens; Lützen, Marie; Bennedsen, Mette; Mogensen, John; Hansen, Søren

With international rules of navigation, the IMO COLREGS, describing the regulatory behaviours of marine vessels relative to each other, correct interpretation of situations is instrumental to the successful navigation at sea. This becomes even more crucial when temporal unattended bridge or fully unmanned navigation is aimed at. Based on a breakdown of COLREG rules, this paper presents a framework for representation of manoeuvering behaviours, that are expected when all vessels obey the rules. Our analysis is based on discrete-event systems theory and the proposed framework consists of sets of finite automata, segregating situation assessment from decision making. A intermediate supervisory layer coordinates the communication of these automata modules. The framework is tested in simulation environment using a realistic scenario.

IFAC-PapersOnLine, Volume 52, Issue 21 / 2019
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paper

Fault tolerant position-mooring control for offshore vessels

Blanke, Mogens; Nguyen, Dong Trong

Fault-tolerance is crucial to maintain safety in offshore operations. The objective of this paper is to show how systematic analysis and design of fault-tolerance is conducted for a complex automation system, exemplified by thruster assisted Position-mooring. Using redundancy as required by classification societies' class notations for offshore position controlled vessels, the paper shows how violations of normal behaviour of main components can be detected and isolated. Using a functional service philosophy, diagnosis procedures are auto-generated based on provable correct graph analysis methods. Functional faults that are only detectable, are rendered isolable through an active isolation approach. Once functional faults are isolated, they are handled by fault accommodation techniques to meet overall control objectives specified by class requirements. The paper illustrates the generic methodology by a system to handle faults in mooring lines, sensors or thrusters. Simulations and model basin experiments are carried out to validate the concept for scenarios with single or multiple faults. The results demonstrate that enhanced availability and safety are obtainable with this design approach. While methods are introduced at a tutorial level, the paper is original by providing a total Position-mooring system design that ensures resilience to any single fault and to selected multiple faults.

Ocean Engineering, Volume 148 / 2018
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paper

Arctic Shipping and Risks: Emergency Categories and Response Capacities

Marchenko, Nataliya; Andreassen, Natalia; Borch, Odd Jarl; Kuznetsova, Svetlana; Ingimundarson, Valur; Jakobsen, Uffe

The sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk significantly in the last decades. The transport pattern has as a result partly changed with more traffic in remote areas. This change may influence on the risk pattern. The critical factors are harsh weather, ice conditions, remoteness and vulnerability of nature. In this paper, we look into the risk of accidents in Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of emergency response. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic maritime accidents. Hence, this study offers a qualitative analysis and an expert-based risk assessment. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the Arctic region are discussed.

TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation, Vol. 12, No. 1 / 2018
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