SUSTAINABULK: Sustainable and efficient dry-bulk operation through improved forecasting and routing

Project

SUSTAINABULK: Sustainable and efficient dry-bulk operation through improved forecasting and routing

In the project, DTU will develop tools that can help a bulk shipping company predict market trends so they can deliver the right capacity to the right region. Furthermore, tools will be developed to plan a coherent route plan to ensure that new orders are available at the final destination to avoid deadheading.

ongoing
Project start: 01. Dec. 2022
Project end: 30. Nov. 2025
Project participants: Alberto TamburiniDavid Pisinger
The background

Dry bulk carriers make up almost 1/3 of the world’s fleet tonnage and transport more than 5 billion tonnes annually. Dry bulk transport consists of single orders with a specific origin and destination that are offered at spot rates. The number of orders varies throughout the year, and so do the spot rates. A shipping company that can place its ships in the right place at the right time will succeed in a highly competitive global market, reduce environmental impact, and create jobs. Since 2018, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has set the path for the decarbonisation of maritime transport, aiming to reduce CO2 emissions per transport work by at least 40% by 2030. A key tool to achieve this goal is to promote SEEMP plans for ships that measure the relationship between efficient transport and CO2 emissions. SEEMP can be improved by avoiding deadheading and becoming better at matching demand and capacity in each port.

 

The project

In the project, DTU will develop tools that can help a bulk shipping company predict market trends so they can deliver the right capacity to the right region. Furthermore, tools will be developed to plan a coherent route plan that ensures that new orders are available at the final destination to avoid deadheading. The problem will be modelled as a routing problem that maximises revenue and minimises energy consumption. The model will take into account the limited demand in each port and price elasticity if multiple vessels compete for the same market. Research and development will be centred on two tracks: (a) Better demand and price forecasting methods that take into account seasonality, regional differences, competition, etc. (b) Better routing algorithms that use the forecasts to design routes that maximise net profitability and capacity utilisation while minimising the environmental footprint. Time permitting, tactical decision support tools will be developed to determine the right fleet size.

 

Expected results

The applicant expects three main results: (1) An algorithm to predict demand in each region, (2) A method to predict freight rates, (3) An optimisation algorithm for route planning over a given time horizon. The goal is to improve the energy efficiency of the ship, measured as the ratio between efficient transport and CO2 emissions.

More info on the project here