Maritime transportation is an essential pillar of modern societies, serving as the backbone of global trade. The shipping industry relies heavily on fossil fuels, significantly impacting the environment and contributing to climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping and decarbonize the industry to combat this issue. This strategy aims to accomplish energy efficiency gains, transition to alternative fuels, and implement market-based measures.
Various energy efficiency indicators are in use to monitor the performance of ships, both from technical and operational perspectives. Building upon previous research that identified shortcomings in these indicators, this thesis investigates alternative methods of assessing the energy efficiency of ships. Emphasizing the importance of a benchmarking tool, the primary objective of this thesis is to contribute to the policy debate on reducing emissions in international shipping by developing a comprehensive carbon intensity indicator.
The thesis comprises four articles addressing various approaches to monitoring ship carbon emissions. The first article focuses on the influence of weather conditions on a ship’s energy efficiency, thereby contributing to the ongoing discussion on weather correction factors. Using model-based machine learning techniques, this article illustrates the diverse sea conditions encountered, their impact on energy efficiency, and the necessity of accounting for this diversity through multiple correction factors.
The second and third articles introduce and develop the concept of operational cycles for maritime transportation, drawing inspiration from the driving cycles employed in the automotive industry. The second article describes the process of generating operational cycles for the maritime sector as a novel concept. It validates this concept using real-world data obtained from a fleet of container ships. Building upon this foundation, the third article extends the concept by elaborating more comprehensive cycles that better represent real-world indicators.
The fourth article explores voluntary reporting frameworks in the shipping industry. It focuses on the Clean Cargo case and investigates the needs and interests of its members regarding this private initiative and related reporting framework. The discussion revolves around the role of these voluntary frameworks as complementary approaches to regulatory frameworks towards maritime decarbonization.
Based on the methodology developments and analysis through the thesis, the following key findings and recommendations are presented:
• The weather impact on ships’ fuel consumption prevents an accurate and real assessment of ships’ efficiency. Multiple weather correction factors for energy efficiency indicators introduce a novel approach.
• Inspired by the automotive industry, maritime operational cycles improve the assessment of technical and operational aspects of a ship’s energy efficiency. The cycles reduce the variability inherent to energy
efficiency indicators and are suitable as benchmarking tools.
• Although the IMO regulatory framework remains at the core of the maritime decarbonization strategy, regional regulatory frameworks and private initiatives have demonstrated their capacity to enhance industry
practices and facilitate regulatory developments.
This thesis contributes to enhancing carbon emissions monitoring in the maritime industry by introducing new methodologies and assessments. The resulting proposals are designed to enrich ongoing discussions within the IMO and complement the existing regulatory frameworks.
The shipping industry is associated with approximately three quarters of all world trade. In recent years, the sustainability of shipping has become a public concern, and various emissions control regulations to reduce pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from ships have been proposed and implemented globally. These regulations aim to drive the shipping industry in a low-carbon and low-pollutant direction by motivating it to switch to more efficient fuel types and reduce energy consumption. At the same time, the cyclical downturn of the world economy and high bunker prices make it necessary and urgent for the shipping industry to operate in a more costeffective way while still satisfying global trade demand. As bunker fuel bunker (e.g., heavy fuel oil (HFO), liquified natural gas (LNG)) consumption is the main source of emissions and bunker fuel costs account for a large proportion of operating costs, shipping companies are making unprecedented efforts to optimize ship energy efficiency. It is widely accepted that the key to improving the energy efficiency of ships is the development of accurate models to predict ship fuel consumption rates under different scenarios. In this study, the ship fuel consumption prediction models presented in the literature (including the academic literature and technical reports, which are a typical type of “grey literature”) are reviewed and compared, and models that optimize ship operations based on fuel consumption prediction results are also presented and discussed. Current research challenges and promising research questions on ship performance monitoring and operational optimization are identified.
The 76th session of the Marine Environment Committee (MEPC 76) of the International Maritime Organization adopted several mandatory measures in June 2021 to reduce carbon emissions from ships. One of the measures is the carbon intensity indicator (CII), which is the carbon emissions per unit transport work for each ship. Several options of CIIs are available and none of them is chosen to be applied yet. We prove that, at least in theory, requiring the attained annual CII of a ship to be less than a reference value, no matter which CII option is applied, may increase its carbon emissions. Therefore, more elaborate models, combined with real data, should be developed to analyze the effectiveness of each CII option and possibly to design a new CII.
In this paper we extend the state-of-the-art stochastic programming models for the Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem (MFRP) to explicitly limit the risk of insolvency due to negative cash flows when making maritime shipping investments. This is achieved by modeling the payment of ships in a number of periodical installments rather than in a lump sum paid upfront, representing more closely the actual cash flows for a shipping company. Based on this, we propose two alternative risk control measures, where the first imposes that the cash flow in each time period is always higher than a desired threshold, while the second limits the Conditional Value-at-Risk. We test the two models on realistic test instances based on data from a shipping company. The computational study demonstrates how the two models can be used to assess the trade-offs between risk of insolvency and expected profits in the MFRP.
Decisions regarding investments in capacity expansion/renewal require taking into account both the operating fitness and the financial performance of the investment. While several operating requirements have been considered in the operations research literature, the corresponding financial aspects have not received as much attention. We introduce a model for the renewal of shipping capacity which maximizes the Average Internal Rate of Return (AIRR). Maximizing the AIRR sets stricter return requirements on money expenditures than classic profit maximization models and may describe more closely shipping investors׳ preferences. The resulting nonlinear model is linearized to ease computation. Based on data from a shipping company we compare a profit maximization model with an AIRR maximization model. Results show that while maximizing profits results in aggressive expansions of the fleet, maximizing the return provides more balanced renewal strategies which may be preferable to most shipping investors.
Strict limits on the maximum sulphur content in fuel used by ships have recently been imposed in some Emission Control Areas (ECAs). In order to comply with these regulations many ship operators will switch to more expensive low-sulphur fuel when sailing inside ECAs. Since they are concerned about minimizing their costs, it is likely that speed and routing decisions will change because of this. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to be applied by ship operators for determining sailing paths and speeds that minimize operating costs for a ship along a given sequence of ports. We perform a computational study on a number of realistic shipping routes in order to evaluate possible impacts on sailing paths and speeds, and hence fuel consumption and costs, from the ECA regulations. Moreover, the aim is to examine the implications for the society with regards to environmental effects. Comparisons of cases show that a likely effect of the regulations is that ship operators will often choose to sail longer distances to avoid sailing time within ECAs. Another effect is that they will sail at lower speeds within and higher speeds outside the ECAs in order to use less of the more expensive fuel. On some shipping routes, this might give a considerable increase in the total amount of fuel consumed and the CO2 emissions.
This report has examined the concept of value creation in the maritime chain of transportation. A maritime transport chain can best be conceptualized as a network through which carriers (e.g. shipping companies and haulage providers) and third parties (e.g. terminal operators, freight forwarders, brokers and agents) provide services for the movement of cargo provided by shippers. The main actors in the maritime chain of transportation are the carriers who add value to the shipper by moving goods from areas with excess supply to areas with excess demand. In this process a number of (independent) third parties may provide a number of services. The shipper and/or carrier will employ these agents if the rise in costs is more than compensated by the value of the service. The third parties can thus only exist if they provide value added services to the carrier and/or to other third party service providers. From a financial perspective value is created when a business earns revenue that exceeds the expenses. In many sectors, however, value is increasingly being created by more intangible drivers such as research, innovation, branding, ideas and networks which usually provide indirect rather than direct benefits (Kaplan & Norton, 2004a; 2004b). This is also the case within maritime logistics. According to Johansson et al. (1993) third parties may add value through (1) improve the level of service, (2) quality, (3) cost and (4) time reduction. The chartering agent’s network and market knowledge allows him to speed up the search time and match process for shippers and carriers (time reduction). The port agent’s local network allows him to speed up port operations (time reduction) and make the necessary arrangement on behalf of the carrier (service). Freight forwarders may take over part of the production chain and provide services which manufacturers don’t consider their core business (service). This includes assembly, quality control, customizing and packing of goods, pest control and after sales services. Third party ship management companies may reduce costs through economies of scale (cost reduction) and increase quality of crew and equipment maintenance through specialization (quality). Just to mention a few. While the report has investigated the concept of value creation, the question of value capturing has not been addressed in this study. Value capturing depends on the individual transactions between the actors in the chain. A port agent may add value to a carrier by securing smooth port operations and thus reduce waiting time. The added value may, however, be captured by a freight forwarder who forces the carrier to lower the price or more likely be distributed among several actors. The business model literature may provide a fruitful lens for exploring this in greater depth. The maritime chain of transportation is becoming increasingly complex and involves an increasing number of actors. The services of some actors are furthermore overlapping. Inland haulage can thus be provided by shippers, freight forwarders, independent liner agents, in-house liner sales offices, or by an independent haulage provider. Freight forwarders are increasingly overtaking functions in the value chain from manufacturer etc. In order to successfully navigate this network is it important to have an overview of the chain of transportation at a more general level
This paper presents a literature survey on the fleet size and mix problem in maritime transportation. Fluctuations in the shipping market and frequent mismatches between fleet capacities and demands highlight the relevance of the problem and call for more accurate decision support. After analyzing the available scientific literature on the problem and its variants and extensions, we summarize the state of the art and highlight the main contributions of past research. Furthermore, by identifying important real life aspects of the problem which past research has failed to capture, we uncover the main areas where more research will be needed.