Keyword: forecasting


Forecasting for the weather driven energy system – A new task under IEA wind

G. Giebel*, C. Draxl, H. Frank, J. Zack, C. Möhrlen, G. Kariniotakis, J. Browell, R. Bessa, D. Lenaghan

The energy system needs a range of forecast types for its operation in addition to the narrow wind power forecast that has been the focus of considerable recent attention. Therefore, the group behind the former IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting for Wind Energy has initiated a new IEA Wind Task with a much broader perspective, which includes prospective interaction with other IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes such as the ones for PV, hydropower, system integration, hydrogen etc. In the new IEA Wind Task 51 (entitled "Foreacsting for the Weather Drive Energy System") the existing Work Packages (WPs) are complemented by work streams in a matrix structure. The Task is divided in three WPs according to the stakeholders: WP1 is mainly aimed at meteorologists, providing the weather forecast basis for the power forecasts. In WP2, the forecast service vendors are the main stakeholders, while the end users populate WP3. The new Task 51 started in January 2022. Planned activities include 4 workshops. The first will focus on the state of the art in forecasting for the energy system plus related research issues and be held during September 2022 in Dublin. The other three workshops will be held later during the 4-year Task period and address (1) seasonal forecasting with emphasis on Dunkelflaute, storage and hydro, (2) minute-scale forecasting, and (3) extreme power system events. The issues and conclusions of each of the workshops will be documented by a published paper. Additionally, the Recommended Practice on Forecast Solution Selection will be updated to reflect the broader perspective.

Institution of Engineering and Technology / 2023
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Anticipated innovations for the blue economy: Crowdsourced predictions for the North Sea Region

Matthew J. Spaniol*, Nicholas J. Rowland

The mission policy approach to the sustainable blue economy has identified as critical the ability to anticipate the emergence of a wide range of feasible innovations as they enter the transactional environment of organizations in the marine and maritime sector. This article contributes to that growing effort by harnessing the wisdom of the crowd and presents more than 60 crowdsourced, time-specific innovation forecasts expected to impact maritime, shipbuilding, ports, offshore wind, and ocean infrastructure. Data were collected in 2020 by the EU-funded Interreg VB PERISCOPE Project, a North Sea Region initiative to catalyze transregional innovation. The results can be used strategically to develop collaborative, transregional planning and policy for innovation based on data reflecting public expectations for the future. Years from now, this article can also act as a snapshot of public expectations at the onset of the decade.

Marine Policy / 2022
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Container freight rate forecasting with improved accuracy by integrating soft facts from practitioners

Schramm, Hans-Joachim; Haque Munim, Ziaul

This study presents a novel approach to forecast freight rates in container shipping by integrating soft facts in the form of measures originating from surveys among practitioners asked about their sentiment, confidence or perception about present and future market development. As a base case, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used and compared the results with multivariate modelling frameworks that could integrate exogenous variables, that is, ARIMAX and Vector Autoregressive (VAR). We find that incorporating the Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) provided by Transport Intelligence into the ARIMAX model improves forecast performance greatly. Hence, a sampling of sentiments, perceptions and/or confidence from a panel of practitioners active in the maritime shipping market contributes to an improved predictive power, even when compared to models that integrate hard facts in the sense of factual data collected by official statistical sources. While investigating the Far East to Northern Europe trade route only, we believe that the proposed approach of integrating such judgements by practitioners can improve forecast performance for other trade routes and shipping markets, too, and probably allows detection of market changes and/or economic development notably earlier than factual data available at that time.

Research in Transportation Business & Management / 2021
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The future of Blue Economies

Matthew Spaniol

In this video, Matthew Spaniol (Aarhus University) presents the interim results from the Interreg vb North Sea PERISCOPE project, a foresight study that involved scanning the horizon from the bird’s nest to identify the innovations that will impact the blue economies in the future, and the accompanying forecasting results that timestamp when in the future the innovations are expected to become commercially available. The session was developed in collaboration with MARLOG.

April / 2021
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Forecasting container shipping freight rates for the Far East – Northern Europe trade lane

Munim, Ziaul Haque; Schramm, Hans-Joachim

This study introduces a state-of-the-art volatility forecasting method for container shipping freight rates. Over the last decade, the container shipping industry has become very unpredictable. The demolition of the shipping conferences system in 2008 for all trades calling a port in the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis in 2009 have affected the container shipping freight market adversely towards a depressive and non-stable market environment with heavily fluctuating freight rate movements. At the same time, the approaches of forecasting container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have been rather limited. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss contemporary container freight rate dynamics in an attempt to forecast for the Far East to Northern Europe trade lane. Methodology-wise, we employ autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as well as the combination of ARIMA and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model, which we call ARIMARCH. We observe that ARIMARCH model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a weekly as well as monthly level. We also observe remarkable influence of recurrent general rate increases on the container freight rate volatility.

Maritime Economics and Logistics / 2017
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