An efficient extreme ship response prediction approach in a given short-term sea state is devised in the paper. The present approach employs an active learning reliability method, named as the active learning Kriging + Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AK-MCMC), to predict the exceedance probability of extreme ship response. Apart from that, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion of stochastic ocean wave is adopted to reduce the number of stochastic variables and to expedite the AK-MCMC computations. Weakly and strongly nonlinear vertical bending moments (VBMs) in a container ship, where the former only accounts for the nonlinearities in the hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces, while the latter also accounts for the nonlinearities in the radiation and diffraction forces together with slamming and hydroelastic effects, are studied to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the present approach. The nonlinear strip theory is used for time domain VBM computations. Validation and comparison against the crude Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) are made. The present approach demonstrates superior efficiency and accuracy compared to FORM. Moreover, methods for estimating the Mean-out-crossing rate of VBM based on reliability indices derived from the present approach are proposed and are validated against long-time numerical simulations.
Driven by increased integration of renewable energy sources, the widespread decarbonization of power systems has led to energy price fluctuations that require greater adaptability and flexibility from grid users in order to maximize profits. Industrial loads equipped with flexible resources can optimize energy consumption rather than merely reacting to immediate events, thereby capitalizing on volatile energy prices. However, the absence of sufficient measured data in industrial processes limits the ability to fully harness this flexibility. To address this challenge, we present a black-box optimization model for optimizing the energy consumption of cooling systems in the aquaculture industry using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian Optimization (BO). XGBoost is employed to establish a nonlinear relationship between cooling system power consumption and available measured data. Based on this model, Bayesian Optimization with the Lower Confidence Bound (LCB) acquisition function is used to determine the optimal discharge temperature of water into breeding pools, minimizing day-ahead electricity costs. The proposed approach is validated using real-world data from a case study at the Port of Hirtshals, Denmark based on measurements from 2023. Our findings illustrate that leveraging the inherent flexibility of industrial processes can yield financial benefits while providing valuable signals for grid operators to adjust consumption behaviors through appropriate price mechanisms. Furthermore, machine learning techniques prove effective in optimizing energy consumption for industries with limited measured data, delivering accurate and practical estimates.
The maritime sector faces increasing pressure to reduce emissions, especially in ports, pushing governments and shipowners towards greener energy sources. Conventional diesel generator (DG) powered vessels experience increased fuel consumption and emissions during low-power demand due to fluctuating loads with changing sea conditions. Integrating battery energy storage can absorb excess power, optimize DG operation, reduce costs, and manage variable loads. Traditional shipboard power systems (SPS) rely on centralized control schemes, which pose the risk of single points of failure, scalability issues, and increased latency due to centralized decision-making. Decentralized control improves resilience and scalability by eliminating single points of failure and enabling local decision-making, which improves response times and system robustness. Although recent research has explored decentralized control strategies for AC or DC-based SPS, there is limited work on hybrid AC-DC SPS architectures. This paper proposes a decentralized control strategy for integrating multiple power sources within a hybrid AC-DC network to optimize their operation. This approach allows vessels to operate in various modes, including full diesel, hybrid, and zero emission, and seamlessly transition between these modes as needed. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is validated through simulation and high-fidelity software-in-the-loop (SIL) results in OPAL-RT 5700, demonstrating adaptive power sharing among different resources.
This study introduces WindWise, a cost–benefit analysis and design optimization tool for Wind Propulsion Systems (WPS) in sustainable shipping. By integrating route simulations, ship constraints, and fuel pricing scenarios, WindWise determines the optimal WPS configuration to maximize fuel savings and minimize payback periods. A retrofit case study of an oil tanker evaluates two WPS classes—DynaRigs and Rotor Sails—across multiple operational and economic conditions. Results reveal that optimal configurations vary based on constraints: in an unconstrained scenario, larger, well-spaced installations minimize aerodynamic losses, whereas realistic constraints shift the preference towards smaller, distributed setups to mitigate cargo loss and air draft penalties. Rotor Sails offer lower upfront costs and shorter payback periods for modest savings targets and for side-wind routes, while DynaRigs emerge as the more viable solution for higher emissions reductions and long-term profitability. Optimization of WPS configurations proves crucial, with non-optimized configurations exhibiting payback periods over 150% higher than optimized ones. Although payback period remains an important metric, considering both payback and net present value provides a more comprehensive assessment of WPS financial viability, with Rotor Sails generally offering faster payback but DynaRigs delivering higher long-term profitability across most scenarios.
This study presents a detailed quantification of how flow orientation affects mass transfer and frictional resistance in periodically confined channels, offering novel insights into the physical similarity relations governing these phenomena. We constitute that the Sherwood number and friction factor adhere to universal scaling laws of the form Sh = A1+B sin(2α) Re1 2 and f = A1+B sin(2α) Re−1 2 , where α depicts the orientation of the periodically confined channel. It is found that the flow orientation and the cross flow velocity independently affect both, the Sherwood number and the friction factor. A key contribution of this work is the explicit characterization of the flow orientation: a 45° rotation of the flow relative to the spacer structure increases the Sherwood number by nearly 25%, while the friction factor rises by approximately 20%. These findings highlight a fundamental trade-off between mass transfer enhancement and flow resistance, suggesting that any process optimization must carefully balance the gains in mixing efficiency against the increased energy dissipation. This study provides a robust framework for further investigations into how periodic geometrical constraints influence transport processes in complex flow systems.
Our recent experimental investigations of flexible side-by-side blades under both steady and unsteady flows have observed flutter in both scenarios. Flutter significantly impacts blade kinematics and the hydrodynamic drag experienced by the blades. Our numerical approach [1], utilizing the reactive force model, successfully reproduces flutter phenomena. In contrast, the traditional Morison’s equation fails to trigger flutter. In the static regime where flutter does not occur, the bulk drag coefficients calibrated from experiments in steady and unsteady flows can be unified through an effective Cauchy number, allowing for the use of analytical models developed for steady flows in unsteady flows. In the flutter regime, using the bulk drag coefficient from steady flows underestimates the drag load in oscillatory flow.
In this article, we develop a deep neural network model to estimate the wave added resistance. The required data to train the model is generated using strip theory calculations over a wide range of hull geometries and operational conditions. The model is efficient as it only requires the ship’s main particulars: length, beam, draft, block coefficient, and slenderness ratio. In addition, we present an application of this model in a vessel performance framework. This will be used for predicting propulsion power and analyzing the degree of biofouling on ships from the company Ultrabulk2. The study shows that the developed deep neural network model produces reliable results in predicting the added wave resistance coefficient in comparison to strip theory calculations. Also, the developed ship propulsion and biofouling analysis display satisfactory output for monitoring hull performance under actual ship operational conditions.
Seaports consume a large amount of energy and emit greenhouse gas and pollutants. Integrated multiple renewable energy systems constitute a promising approach to reduce the carbon footprint in seaports. However, the intermittent nature of renewable resources, stochastic dynamics of the demand in seaports, and unbalanced structure of seaport energy systems require a proper design of energy storage systems. In this paper, a framework for multi-objective optimization of hybrid energy storage systems in stochastic unbalanced integrated multi-energy systems at sustainable mega seaports is proposed to minimize life-cycle costs and minimize carbon emissions. The optimization problem is formulated with reference to the energy management of the integrated multi-energy system at the seaport and considering both distributed and centralized hybrid energy storage configurations. Wavelet decomposition and double-layer particle swarm optimization are proposed to solve the multi-objective optimization problem. The real power system of the largest port worldwide, i.e., the Ningbo Zhoushan Port, was selected as a case study. The results show that, with respect to a situation with no energy storage system, the proposed approach can save 81.29 million RMB in electricity purchases and eliminate approximately 497,186 tons of carbon emissions over the entire lifecycle of the energy storage system. The findings suggest that the proposed hybrid energy storage framework holds the potential to yield substantial economic and environmental advantages within mega seaports. This framework offers a viable solution for port authorities seeking to implement hybrid energy storage systems aimed at fostering greater sustainability within port operations.
The maritime industry is a crucial hard-to-abate sector that is expected to depend on high-energy density renewable liquid fuels in the future. Traditionally, decarbonization pathways have been assessed assuming exogenous cost trajectories for renewable liquid fuels based on an exogenous learning curve. While past studies have looked at the impact of endogenizing learning curves for a specific technology utilizing linear approximation, a fully endogenous direct non-linear implementation of learning curves in a detailed sectoral model (maritime industry) that explores dynamics concerning sensitive parameters does not yet exist. Here, we apply an open-source optimization model for decarbonizing the maritime industry and further develop the model by encompassing a nonconvex mixed-integer quadratically constrained programming approach to analyze the impact of endogenized learning curves for renewable fuel costs following an experience curve approach. We find that global greenhouse gas emissions are significantly lower (up to 25% over a 30 year horizon) when utilizing endogenously modeled prices for renewable fuels compared to commonly used exogenous learning frameworks. Furthermore, we find that conventional modeling approaches overestimate the cost of climate mitigation, which can have significant policy implication related to carbon pricing and fuel efficiency requirements. In a broader context, this emphasizes the potential opportunities that can be achieved if policymakers and companies accelerate investments that drive down the costs of renewable technologies efficiently and thus trigger endogenous experience-based learning in real life.
Maritime transportation is an essential pillar of modern societies, serving as the backbone of global trade. The shipping industry relies heavily on fossil fuels, significantly impacting the environment and contributing to climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping and decarbonize the industry to combat this issue. This strategy aims to accomplish energy efficiency gains, transition to alternative fuels, and implement market-based measures.
Various energy efficiency indicators are in use to monitor the performance of ships, both from technical and operational perspectives. Building upon previous research that identified shortcomings in these indicators, this thesis investigates alternative methods of assessing the energy efficiency of ships. Emphasizing the importance of a benchmarking tool, the primary objective of this thesis is to contribute to the policy debate on reducing emissions in international shipping by developing a comprehensive carbon intensity indicator.
The thesis comprises four articles addressing various approaches to monitoring ship carbon emissions. The first article focuses on the influence of weather conditions on a ship’s energy efficiency, thereby contributing to the ongoing discussion on weather correction factors. Using model-based machine learning techniques, this article illustrates the diverse sea conditions encountered, their impact on energy efficiency, and the necessity of accounting for this diversity through multiple correction factors.
The second and third articles introduce and develop the concept of operational cycles for maritime transportation, drawing inspiration from the driving cycles employed in the automotive industry. The second article describes the process of generating operational cycles for the maritime sector as a novel concept. It validates this concept using real-world data obtained from a fleet of container ships. Building upon this foundation, the third article extends the concept by elaborating more comprehensive cycles that better represent real-world indicators.
The fourth article explores voluntary reporting frameworks in the shipping industry. It focuses on the Clean Cargo case and investigates the needs and interests of its members regarding this private initiative and related reporting framework. The discussion revolves around the role of these voluntary frameworks as complementary approaches to regulatory frameworks towards maritime decarbonization.
Based on the methodology developments and analysis through the thesis, the following key findings and recommendations are presented:
• The weather impact on ships’ fuel consumption prevents an accurate and real assessment of ships’ efficiency. Multiple weather correction factors for energy efficiency indicators introduce a novel approach.
• Inspired by the automotive industry, maritime operational cycles improve the assessment of technical and operational aspects of a ship’s energy efficiency. The cycles reduce the variability inherent to energy
efficiency indicators and are suitable as benchmarking tools.
• Although the IMO regulatory framework remains at the core of the maritime decarbonization strategy, regional regulatory frameworks and private initiatives have demonstrated their capacity to enhance industry
practices and facilitate regulatory developments.
This thesis contributes to enhancing carbon emissions monitoring in the maritime industry by introducing new methodologies and assessments. The resulting proposals are designed to enrich ongoing discussions within the IMO and complement the existing regulatory frameworks.